NuScale Power (SMR) Stock Forecast: Riding the Nuclear Renaissance & AI Wave, or Overheated Hype?

 

I. Introduction: NuScale Power at the Forefront of the SMR Revolution

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) has emerged as a significant, albeit speculative, name in the evolving energy landscape. The company is at the vanguard of developing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), a novel nuclear technology attracting considerable attention for its potential to provide clean, reliable baseload power. The stock (SMR) has experienced notable volatility and substantial investor interest, reflecting both the immense promise and inherent risks associated with pioneering new energy frontiers. NuScale, a "small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) design company," has seen its stock soar at various points, indicative of market enthusiasm for its potential to "disrupt the market for traditional nuclear reactors".  

This article aims to provide an up-to-date, precise, and balanced analysis of NuScale Power's stock forecasts. It will delve into its SMR technology, its strategic market positioning—particularly concerning the voracious energy demands of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data centers—its financial underpinnings, prevailing analyst sentiments, and the critical risks that investors must consider. The intense investor focus on NuScale, despite its stage prior to full-scale commercialization and limited current revenue from core operations, signals a broader market appetite for transformative clean energy solutions. This appetite appears strong enough to sometimes overlook traditional valuation metrics in favor of betting on high-risk, high-reward technologies, especially those aligned with powerful megatrends like AI and global decarbonization efforts. This dynamic suggests that NuScale's stock is highly sensitive to news, milestone achievements, and shifts in market sentiment regarding these broader trends.

II. Understanding NuScale's Technology and Market Position

A. What are Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)?

Small Modular Reactors represent a new paradigm in nuclear energy. Unlike traditional large-scale nuclear plants, SMRs are designed to be smaller, with components factory-built and then assembled on-site. This modularity aims to offer several advantages: potentially lower upfront capital costs due to standardized designs and factory production, shorter construction timelines, greater siting flexibility (allowing them to be placed in locations unsuitable for large reactors or closer to demand centers like industrial parks or data centers), and enhanced safety features often incorporating passive cooling systems. This approach makes it "easier to build nuclear power plants in areas that aren't suited for bigger plants, and it's generally cheaper and requires less time than constructing a new plant from the ground up". NuScale highlights specific advantages for its SMRs, such as "flexible plant siting," an estimated "36-Month Construction" timeline, a "scalable design," and inherent safety features allowing it to be "walk-away safe".  

B. NuScale's VOYGR™ Power Plants and Landmark NRC Approval

NuScale Power's flagship technology is the NuScale Power Module™ (NPM), a pressurized water reactor. These NPMs are designed to be deployed in scalable VOYGR™ power plants, configurable with multiple modules—such as 6-module or 12-module plants—to meet varying energy demands. A pivotal achievement for NuScale, and a key differentiator, is its regulatory progress in the United States. It is the first and only company to have its SMR design receive Standard Design Approval (SDA) from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).  

Initially, this approval, certified in January 2023, was for its 50 MWe module. More recently, and of significant importance, the NRC approved an uprated 77 MWe version of the NuScale Power Module in May 2025. This uprated design is crucial, as it is considered more cost-effective. The move to secure approval for the 77 MWe design was likely a critical strategic pivot driven by economic imperatives. The original 50 MWe module may have faced challenges in achieving cost-competitiveness against other energy sources or even larger nuclear reactors. This adaptation demonstrates NuScale's responsiveness to market realities but also subtly underscores the inherent economic hurdles in making SMRs broadly viable. The 77 MWe output per module is seen as necessary for NuScale's SMRs "to be more cost-effective than a comparable coal-fired plant". Some industry observers speculated that the initial 50MWe design might have been "flat-out uneconomical". Thus, the transition to the 77 MWe design was not merely a technical enhancement but a crucial strategic move aimed at improving the fundamental economic attractiveness of NuScale's offering.  

C. Target Markets and Commercialization Strategy

NuScale is targeting a diverse range of customers. These include traditional electric utilities looking to add carbon-free baseload capacity or replace retiring fossil fuel plants, industrial companies requiring significant process heat and steam for their operations, and, increasingly, power-hungry data centers and AI companies. Other potential applications include desalination and hydrogen production.  

To bring its technology to market, NuScale has an exclusive global commercialization partnership with ENTRA1 Energy. ENTRA1 is tasked with providing customized plant development, financing, ownership, and operating structures designed to de-risk projects and meet specific customer needs. This partnership structure means NuScale's commercialization success is heavily dependent on the execution capabilities and financial strength of ENTRA1 Energy. While this collaboration can leverage specialized development expertise and potentially accelerate market entry, it also introduces a layer of third-party risk. Any challenges faced by ENTRA1 in project financing, development, or operation could directly impede NuScale's growth trajectory, as NuScale's ability to translate its technological lead and customer interest into operational, revenue-generating power plants is intrinsically linked to ENTRA1's performance.  

III. The Bull Case for NuScale Power (SMR) Stock

A. Surging Demand for Clean, Baseload Power

The global imperative to decarbonize energy systems, coupled with the need for energy security and grid stability, is driving a resurgence of interest in nuclear power. There is a "high demand for electricity and clean energy". SMRs, with their promise of scalability and smaller environmental footprints compared to gigawatt-scale plants, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend. Factors such as "geopolitical conflicts in fossil fuel regions, green energy initiatives... [are] driving more countries and companies to invest in nuclear power".  

B. The AI and Data Center Energy Consumption Boom – A Key Catalyst

This is arguably the most potent near-to-medium term catalyst for NuScale. The exponential growth of Artificial Intelligence and the proliferation of data centers are creating an unprecedented demand for electricity. These facilities require massive amounts of reliable, 24/7, carbon-free power—a profile that SMRs are uniquely suited to fill. The "increasing need for AI-powered data centers...serve[s] as a major driving factor" for SMR demand. Major technology companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle are reportedly making substantial commitments to using nuclear energy, including SMR technology, to meet their sustainability goals and power needs. The "soaring energy needs of the cloud and AI markets" are a recurring theme.  

NuScale executives have stated they are in "advanced discussions" with data center operators, emphasizing their technology is "near-term deployable". A U.S. Department of Energy report forecasts data centers may triple their energy use in just three years, potentially accounting for as much as 12% of U.S. electricity consumption by 2028. Meta alone is reportedly seeking up to 4 gigawatts of new nuclear power to help meet its AI and sustainability objectives. The sheer scale of this projected energy demand could fundamentally alter the adoption curve for SMRs. If NuScale can successfully position itself as a go-to provider for this segment, it might achieve scale and cost reductions faster than if it were solely reliant on traditional utility customers. This creates a potential "demand shock" that could validate high growth expectations, but also amplifies the pressure to deliver reliably for these demanding clients.  

C. First-Mover Advantage & Regulatory Milestone

NuScale's Standard Design Approval from the NRC for its 77 MWe module grants it a significant first-mover advantage in the U.S. market for its specific light-water SMR design. This "NRC design certification" is a key component of their claimed "First-Mover Advantage". This regulatory green light is a high barrier to entry that competitors must also overcome. However, this first-mover regulatory advantage is a depreciating asset. Its true defensibility will be determined by NuScale's ability to convert this lead into operational excellence, secure a robust supply chain , and achieve cost-competitiveness before a wider field of SMR competitors reach similar regulatory maturity and potentially offer more advanced or economical solutions. The termination of the UAMPS project demonstrated that regulatory approval alone does not guarantee commercial success.  

D. Strong Projected Revenue Growth & Customer Engagement

While NuScale's current revenues from its core SMR business are nascent, analysts project substantial revenue growth in the coming years as its SMR projects move towards operation and new orders are secured. Some projections suggest a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 118% in revenue from 2024 to 2027. The company has reported significant progress in customer engagement, expecting its first "firm customer order" in 2025, with "upwards of 10 [discussions] as 'advanced,' many of which have progressed to the point of multiple iterations of term sheets". This indicates a tangible pipeline of opportunities. More conservative revenue estimates project $54.0 million for 2025 and $155.5 million for 2026 , while other consensus figures pin FY2025 revenue at $74 million.  

E. Government Support and the "Nuclear Renaissance"

There is a growing "nuclear power renaissance policy" in the U.S. and supportive sentiment internationally. Governments are increasingly recognizing nuclear energy's role in achieving climate goals and ensuring energy independence. Initiatives like the U.S. Department of Energy reopening a funding program for Generation III+ SMRs with up to $900 million available (applications for which were due in April 2025) , and proposed legislation like the "Small Modular Reactor Commercialization Act of 2025" (introduced in April 2025) , signal a favorable policy landscape that can help de-risk and accelerate SMR deployment.  

IV. The Bear Case and Key Risks for NuScale Power (SMR) Stock

A. Pre-Revenue Status and Protracted Path to Profitability

A fundamental risk is NuScale's current financial state. As of mid-2025, the company is largely pre-commercial revenue from its core SMR business , although some past developmental revenue has been reported. It remains in a significant "cash-burning stage, consuming about $100 million in cash flow each year," according to one source, though specific annual figures can vary. NuScale "isn't profitable yet" , and it "will take years — and some good luck to boot — to become profitable". The company itself, in its 2024 10-K filing, expected operating losses to grow until full commercialization.  

B. Sky-High Valuation Metrics

NuScale's stock often trades at valuation multiples that are exceptionally high, especially for a company yet to achieve consistent profitability or significant revenue. One report noted a forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 90.42X, "significantly higher than its median of 29.14X and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 6.30X". At one point, even without substantial sales revenue, the company's market value approached $10 billion, though this figure fluctuates. Such a premium valuation prices in a great deal of future success and makes the stock highly vulnerable to any operational setbacks or missed expectations. This high P/S ratio, for a company with minimal current commercial sales, implies that the stock is priced for near-flawless execution of a highly optimistic future scenario. Any significant deviation – such as delays in securing pivotal orders, unexpected cost escalations in early projects, or a slower-than-anticipated ramp-up in AI-driven energy demand – could trigger a disproportionately severe negative reaction in the stock price, as there is little fundamental valuation support from current operations.  

C. Execution Risk and Historical Precedent (UAMPS)

The successful deployment of complex, first-of-a-kind (FOAK) nuclear projects is notoriously challenging, often plagued by delays and cost overruns. NuScale faces significant execution risk. The termination of its contract with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) for its flagship U.S. project, due to "rising costs" , serves as a stark reminder of these challenges. NuScale's 2023 10-K filing explicitly listed "Delays in Development and Manufacture" and "First Commercial Delivery Setbacks" as key risk factors. The UAMPS project termination is more than just a single project failure; it's a critical data point that stress-tested the SMR commercialization thesis in the U.S. It starkly revealed that even with NRC design approval, project economics in the face of inflation, supply chain issues, and inherent FOAK complexities can derail SMR deployment. This event likely forced a strategic re-evaluation within NuScale and the broader SMR industry regarding cost control, project management, and customer selection.  

D. Intensifying Competition in the SMR Arena

NuScale is not operating in a vacuum. While it has an early regulatory lead in the U.S. for its specific light-water design, the SMR space is becoming increasingly crowded. Competitors include established giants and innovative startups such as GE-Hitachi , X-energy , TerraPower , and Kairos Power. These companies are also advancing their technologies and regulatory engagements, potentially eroding NuScale's first-mover advantage over time. Competition from state-backed entities in China and Russia is also a noted risk.  

E. Unproven Economics and Scalability of SMR Technology

While SMR technology holds great promise, its economic viability and operational performance at a commercial scale are largely unproven. One source notes that "SMR technology...has not been verified on a large scale". Achieving cost-competitiveness with established energy sources like natural gas combined cycle plants, or even renewables paired with storage, is a critical hurdle. An analysis from The Breakthrough Institute highlighted that NuScale's cost-competitiveness against natural gas is highly conditional on factors like gas prices, construction costs being on budget, and discount rates. It concluded, "if NuScale cannot build its plants around their expected budget, private investment in their SMRs is unlikely even with high natural gas prices". Another source stated that "the high cost and risks of their experimental, untested technologies are proving too onerous".  

F. Supply Chain Bottlenecks and Customer Order Conversion

The nuclear industry can face a "tight nuclear supply chain" , which could hinder NuScale's ability to ramp up production or handle multiple orders simultaneously. While the company reports advanced customer discussions , converting this interest into firm, large-scale, and financially sound orders is paramount. Historically, a "lack of a major customer order" has been a concern , though the company indicates progress on this front. "Supply Base Scalability" was also identified as a risk in its 2023 10-K.  

G. Public Perception, Regulatory Complexities, and Financial Risks

Public acceptance of nuclear energy, though generally improving , can vary and present siting challenges (NIMBYism, "Not In My Back Yard"). Each new deployment, especially in new jurisdictions, will require navigating complex regulatory approvals beyond the initial design certification. Furthermore, the company has a history of losses and may require additional future funding, which carries its own risks. While the narrative of U.S. government support for a "nuclear renaissance" is a positive tailwind, the actual translation of policy into tangible benefits for specific companies like NuScale can be a slow, uncertain, and competitive process. Relying on government programs as a primary short-term investment catalyst may be imprudent.  

V. Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets

A. Consensus View

Analyst sentiment on NuScale Power is generally positive but reflects the company's speculative nature. Based on a compilation of sources as of mid-June 2025, the consensus rating tends towards a "Buy" or "Moderate Buy." For instance, one source aggregating 11 analyst ratings reported a "Buy" consensus. Another, based on 5 analysts, also indicated a "Buy" consensus (40% Strong Buy, 20% Buy, 40% Hold). Zacks Investment Research, however, assigned a "Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)". More recent data from June 2025, based on 10 brokerage firms, showed an Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) of 2.10 (on a scale of 1-Strong Buy to 5-Strong Sell), leaning positive. Another source covering 7 Wall Street analysts assigned a "Moderate Buy" consensus. This divergence, with a "Hold" rating from an entity like Zacks which also assigns a low "Value Score of F," alongside more bullish "Buy" ratings, highlights a classic growth vs. value dilemma. It suggests that while the long-term growth narrative for NuScale is compelling to many, its current stock price may already reflect much of this optimism, leaving it looking overvalued from a traditional fundamental or value investing perspective.  

B. Price Target Range

Analyst 12-month price targets for SMR show a considerable range, underscoring the uncertainty in valuing a company at this stage.

• WallStreetZen (based on 5 analysts, likely as of late May 2025) provided an average target of $30.80, with a high of $41.00 and a low of $20.00.  
• Zacks (based on 7 analysts, as of June 2025) reported an average target of $32.00, a high of $41.00, and a low of $22.00.  
• MarketBeat (based on 7 analysts, as of June 2025) indicated an average target of $27.00, a high of $41.00, and a low of $14.00.  
• An earlier target from Public.com was $21.91.  

The significant dispersion in these price targets (e.g., $14 to $41) is a strong indicator of the high level of uncertainty surrounding NuScale's future. For a company in a nascent industry with a long road to profitability, valuation models are extremely sensitive to assumptions about market adoption, execution success, and discount rates. The "average" target can thus mask significant underlying disagreement among analysts. Investors should be wary of anchoring to a single average target and instead consider the range and the qualitative arguments behind different analyst views.

C. Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Analysts expect NuScale to remain loss-making for the next few years, but with significant revenue growth anticipated as commercial operations begin.

• For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss is 42 cents per share. One analyst also forecasts an EPS of -$0.42 for 2025 and -$0.43 for 2026.  
• Revenue forecasts for FY2025 vary: one analyst projects $54.0 million , while another consensus pins it at $74 million. For FY2026, the $54.0M source projects $155.5 million.  
• For Q2 2025, one platform showed a consensus revenue forecast of $10.487M and an EPS forecast of -$0.115.  

D. Recent Analyst Actions/Commentary

Recent analyst actions in May 2025, as reported by MarketBeat, show several firms adjusting their price targets upwards, including Canaccord Genuity (to $35.00), UBS (to $34.00), and CLSA (to $41.00), while maintaining Buy or Neutral equivalent ratings. This suggests a recent increase in optimism or an adjustment to reflect market movements or new information, such as the 77 MWe design approval.  

The following table summarizes recent analyst ratings and price targets:

NuScale Power (SMR) Analyst Ratings and Price Targets (June 2025)

Analyst Firm/Source	Date of Report/Update	Rating	12-Month Price Target	Previous Target
Canaccord Genuity	May 29, 2025	Buy	$35.00	$26.00
UBS Group	May 29, 2025	Neutral	$34.00	$17.00
CLSA	May 27, 2025	Outperform	$41.00	$31.00
Goldman Sachs Group	May 20, 2025	Neutral	$24.00	N/A
Zacks	June 6, 2025	Hold (Rank#3)	$32.00 (Avg)	N/A
MarketBeat Consensus	June 10, 2025	Moderate Buy	$27.00 (Avg)	$16.60 (Prev. Avg)
WallStreetZen Consensus	May 29, 2025	Buy	$30.80 (Avg)	N/A

Note: Consensus figures are averages from multiple analysts. Individual firm ratings/targets from. Zacks data from.  

VI. Key Factors to Watch for NuScale's Future Stock Performance

A. Securing Firm Customer Orders & Successful Project Execution

This is paramount. The market needs to see NuScale convert expressions of interest and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) into legally binding, financially sound contracts for its SMRs. The company's expectation of a "firm customer order" in 2025 will be a critical test. Equally important is the successful execution of early projects, such as the VOYGR plant for RoPower in Doicești, Romania , delivering them on time and within budget. Any deviation here could significantly impact investor confidence, recalling the UAMPS setback. The successful deployment and operational performance of NuScale's first international projects, particularly RoPower, will serve as a crucial global validation point. Positive outcomes here could significantly de-risk future international sales and open up a much larger addressable market, while any major setbacks could have a chilling effect on international prospects.  

B. Progress in Manufacturing, Supply Chain Development, and Cost Reduction

To meet potential demand and achieve profitability, NuScale must effectively scale up its manufacturing capabilities, working closely with partners like Doosan Enerbility and Alleima. Developing a resilient and cost-effective supply chain is crucial. Continuous efforts to reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from its SMRs will determine its competitiveness against other energy sources.  

C. Demonstrating Economic Viability and Achieving Profitability

Beyond technical feasibility, NuScale must prove that its SMRs can generate electricity at a competitive cost. The path to profitability will be closely watched, involving not just revenue growth but also stringent cost control and efficient capital deployment. The company's ability to manage its cash burn rate and secure funding if needed will be vital. The recent capital infusion from warrant exercises, which generated $227.7 million , significantly strengthens NuScale's balance sheet and extends its financial runway. While this is dilutive to existing shareholders, the market's apparent positive reception suggests that for a company at NuScale's development stage, investors are currently prioritizing the mitigation of financing risk and the ability to fund critical commercialization activities over concerns about near-term dilution.  

D. Navigating the Competitive Landscape

The SMR market is evolving, with multiple players. NuScale needs to maintain its technological edge, differentiate its offering, and effectively compete on factors like cost, deployment speed, safety, and customer service.  

E. Macro Environment, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Developments

Broader economic conditions, including interest rates (which affect the financing of large capital projects), inflation (impacting project costs), and government energy policies will influence NuScale's prospects. Continued supportive regulatory frameworks for new nuclear technologies are also essential.  

F. Continued Innovation and Adaptation

The energy sector is dynamic. NuScale will need to continue innovating its technology (as seen with the uprate to 77 MWe) and adapting its business model to meet evolving market needs and maintain a competitive advantage.

VII. Conclusion: Navigating the NuScale Investment Landscape

NuScale Power stands as a pioneering entity in the promising field of Small Modular Reactors, strategically positioned to capitalize on powerful secular trends such as global decarbonization and the escalating energy demands of the AI sector. The recent U.S. NRC approval for its uprated 77 MWe SMR design marks a significant milestone, solidifying its first-mover advantage in its specific technology class within the United States.

However, an investment in NuScale (SMR) is decidedly speculative at this juncture. While the potential upside is considerable if the company successfully commercializes its technology and captures a meaningful share of the burgeoning SMR market, the pathway is fraught with substantial risks. These include its current high valuation metrics despite minimal revenue from core operations , the intense and growing competition in the SMR space , the long and uncertain road to achieving profitability , and the formidable challenges of executing complex, first-of-a-kind nuclear projects on time and budget.  

Investing in NuScale Power requires a long-term investment horizon, a significant appetite for risk, and diligent monitoring of the company's progress against key operational and financial milestones. These include securing firm customer contracts, demonstrating successful and cost-effective project deployment (especially early projects like in Romania), managing cash burn effectively, and making tangible progress towards profitability. SMR is not a stock for risk-averse investors. For those who believe in the transformative potential of the SMR revolution and NuScale's ability to navigate the challenges to become a leader, it could offer substantial long-term rewards. An investment in NuScale Power at its current stage of development and market valuation is less a play on traditional financial metrics and more akin to a venture capital-style bet on disruptive technology within the public markets. The potential outcomes are highly leveraged – either substantial success if the SMR technology is widely adopted and NuScale executes effectively, or significant capital impairment if it fails to overcome the numerous commercialization and competitive hurdles. This necessitates a portfolio approach where SMR might be one of several high-risk/high-reward holdings.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in stocks, especially in emerging technology sectors, carries significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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